The Presidential Debate

I gotta tell you: I like this John McCain guy. I like him a lot. I support many of his views and I respect him as a man. I would seriously consider voting for the man if he had chosen a reasonable running mate...

After the debate this evening I checked the actuarial tables at the Social Security Administration website that give the chance a person of a given age will die within the next year. John McCain was born in 1936, which means he will be about 72 when he takes office, if elected. According to my calculations he has a 16% chance of dying in the following 4 years (calculate for yourself).

If he does die during his putative presidency, his running mate who I find EXTREMELY unpalatable (and that is an understatement) would become President. That's a 1 in 6 chance of getting a Sarah Palin presidency. The same chance as rolling a "6" on an ordinary game die.

I, for one, would rather not roll the dice on that specific bet. I am voting for Obama.